Seeing the future differently
· 2 min read
At this year’s Vinpro Information Day, Vinpro consultation services manager Conrad Schutte said the industry is currently doing business in a “VUCA” world that requires us to think differently. What does this mean and what new concepts and tools do we need to navigate a chaotic and unpredictable world?
VUCA, the acronym for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, describes a situation where there are so many simultaneous variables and challenges that strategies created to address a clearly visible problem no longer work. The usual solutions might even make things worse.
Volatility: describes the suddenness with which big and small changes can occur.
Uncertainty: means the future becomes harder to predict based on past experience.
Complexity: indicates the many layers and interconnected systems involved.
Ambiguity: conveys the difficulty of discerning options or plotting a clear course.
Over the past 70 years, professional futurists have developed tools and techniques for making sense of VUCA environments and navigating their inherent uncertainty. It involves the study of complex interacting systems in which components continually reorganise themselves in relation to one another and their environment.
As a result the system exhibits new or emergent properties that can’t be traced back to any of its parts. No wonder that addressing this challenge is regarded as one of the most pressing issues of our time. Complexity thinking offers a way to understand how a community, organisation or living system actually behaves in the real world.
Navigating uncertainty
In a complex system, the relationships between all the elements are far more important than their individual positions or functions at any given moment. The interactions are also non-linear, so it’s hard to know what kinds of changes will produce what types of outcomes. When a Boeing breaks down, it’s relatively easy to isolate the problem and replace a broken part, but problems in a complex system have no simple solutions. They require skills of a different kind.
Our vision of the future affects the choices and decisions we make today. An uncertain future requires a new way of looking at things.
Risks and opportunities
Together, the organisational, transactional and contextual domains …
A full version of this article appears in the April 2020 issue of WineLand Magazine. Buy your copy here
More from
Markets, business and trade
Does Government know what it’s costing you?
A decision made in Pretoria can change the way a wine business operates. But who makes sure the people making those decisions understand what happens on the ground? South Africa Wine’s Jordyn Goeieman takes us inside the often unseen work of influencing the policies that affect the industry.
All roads lead to Wine Paris
With professionals from more than 169 countries attending Wine Paris in 2026, the exhibition has become an increasingly important meeting point for the global wine trade. Nicolas Cuissard, Director of Wine Paris, speaks to WineLand about the exhibition’s growing international influence, opportunities for South African producers and what it takes to turn participation into business.
Before you bottle it, can you sell it?
A good wine and an attractive label are not enough to build a sustainable business. South Africa Wine’s Phil Bowes explains why finding customers, testing assumptions and understanding the numbers should come before committing to a new wine brand.